The $78B guide is a floor, not a ceiling. NVIDIA baked in zero China revenue â any China commentary is pure upside. The real question is whether Q2 guidance clears $85B, which is what the buy-side needs to re-rate the stock.
Street consensus for the quarter ending April 27, 2026. Management guided revenue of $78.0B ±2% â the consensus has converged around $78.4B. Critically, the guide explicitly excludes all China Data Center compute revenue. Any China shipment approval is unmodeled upside. Gross margin guided at 75.0% non-GAAP ±50 bps, reflecting Blackwell Ultra (GB300) mix ramp.
| Metric | Consensus Est. | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $78.4B | Mgmt guide $78.0B ±2% |
| YoY Revenue Growth | ~77% | Q1 FY26 base = $44.1B |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.76 | Range $1.74â$1.78 |
| Data Center Revenue | ~$71B | ~91% of total |
| Gaming Revenue | ~$3.5B | GeForce / RTX 50 ramp |
| Automotive Revenue | ~$650M | DRIVE platform |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | ~75.0% | Guided 75.0% ±50 bps |
| China DC Revenue | $0 | Explicitly excluded from guide |
| Q2 FY27 Street Bull | ~$83â85B | Buy-side needs â¥$85B to re-rate |
Consensus is anchored to the $78B guide. These are five vectors where buy-side models are either absent or systematically underweighted â each is a potential incremental upside source not captured in the $78.4B consensus estimate.
Three scenarios for May 27. Probabilities reflect both fundamental likelihood and the specific expectation bar entering the print. NVDA's risk profile is asymmetric toward base: a strong beat without a massive Q2 raise likely produces a muted reaction given 44 of 49 analysts are already at Strong Buy.
The Q2 FY27 revenue guide is the primary stock catalyst â more than Q1 actuals. Buy-side consensus is around $86B+ for Q2. A Q2 guide at $85B+ signals acceleration and re-rates the stock. A Q2 guide at $83â84B (in-line with street) is neutral to slightly negative given expectations. Gross margin below 74.0% â which would signal GB300 yield or mix issues â is the bear case trigger independent of revenue.
The call begins approximately 90 minutes after market close (~5:30pm PT). Jensen Huang leads; Colette Kress handles the financial bridge. Watch these eight signals in order of market impact:
Get the post-print verdict. We'll email you within 24h of the print with actuals vs. our call, graded prediction score, and updated bull/bear range.
Our Q1 estimate ($80â81B) is $1.6â2.6B above consensus, driven by: GB300 NVL72 rack deliveries ahead of the production schedule implied in guidance; sovereign AI backlog recognition in Q1 from HUMAIN and UAE programs; and networking mix expansion. Our Q2 guide call ($85â87B) reflects confirmed sovereign delivery schedules, hyperscaler capex commitments for H1 CY2026, and zero China upside embedded (upside from any China approval is additive to this estimate).
We'll email you the actuals brief â our call vs. consensus, graded prediction score, and updated thesis â within 24h of the May 27 close.
Three upstream AI chip prints in AprilâMay 2026 create a directional read-through to NVDA. All three confirm the demand environment is intact. The AMD and ARM prints are particularly relevant â AMD prints May 5 with direct MI-series GPU commentary, and ARM prints May 6 with royalty volumes that directly reflect Blackwell silicon production ramp.
We'll score our call against actuals and send you the verdict within 24 hours of the print. No noise â just the brief, the actuals, and what we got right and wrong.
This brief is grounded in 18 primary sources. Full URLs are available in Report #571353. Research current as of April 29, 2026.
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