Step 01
📄
Publish Pre-Print
We publish the brief before earnings print — specific, falsifiable claims about revenue, margins, guidance, and thesis.
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Step 02
🖨️
Print Lands
Earnings release hits. We compare the actual result to our pre-print thesis — no retroactive editing, no moving the goalposts.
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Step 03
🎯
Score Against Claims
Each falsifiable claim is scored: direction, magnitude, key metrics. Recap publishes the same night — including what we got wrong.
✅ Correct
Directional call correct, key metrics within range. Our pre-print thesis accurately identified the setup (beat-and-raise, miss-and-cut, or in-line) and our specific estimates were within reasonable variance of actuals. Most claims in the "what we got right" section hold up.
⚠️ Mixed
Direction right, magnitude off — or split verdict across metrics. The underlying thesis proved correct but specific estimates were significantly off, or we were right on some key metrics and wrong on others. Captures cases where we understood the business but misjudged scale.
❌ Missed
Directional call wrong or key thesis failed. The print went materially against our pre-print thesis — we called a beat and got a miss, or vice versa. We own these flat without qualification.
We publish the misses. Every paid analyst service has a track record — most just don't show it. Misses get buried, hits get promoted. We score every call and publish the full breakdown, including the ones where we were wrong. An honest scorecard is more useful to you than a curated one. If we miss badly, you'll see it here before you subscribe.